Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 song this week?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 85¢ · $149 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
$149.41
$0.25
82¢ → 84.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 83.6¢ | $117.34 | $118.63 | +$1.29 | — 1-6 (7) |
WA WarriorH<$100 | Yesavg 74¢ | $28.28 | $28 | -$0.28 | — 0-12 (12) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Noavg 20.5¢ | $3.27 | $2.47 | -$0.8 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Noavg 13¢ | $0.18 | $0.22 | +$0.04 | 28% 2424-6147 (8571) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.