Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (21%) · Yes at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 21%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$127.43

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 98.7¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL+$132.06

No11 traders

Total Value$78.09

Total Shares3,006

Combined PnL-$259.5

Yes — 21%No — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 76.5¢	$507.65	$494.2	+$105.95	61% 356-225 (581)
clazzy1	Yesavg 82¢	$375.04	$445.26	+$70.22	64% 464-262 (726)
Istaroth	Yesavg 77.2¢	$203.9	$134.3	-$44.1	16% 416-2180 (2596)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Noavg 5.4¢	$46	$25.5	-$20.5	20% 2358-9226 (11584)
HE HerrieDavisCTR	Noavg 16¢	$456.75	$12.1	-$60.98	36% 2138-3835 (5973)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR	Noavg 11¢	$449	$11.9	-$37.49	17% 260-1309 (1569)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$61.98	$7.64	-$44.39	24% 291-898 (1189)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 18.7¢	$33.7	$5.4	-$28.3	54% 26594-22226 (48820)
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Noavg 9.3¢	$13.05	$4.2	-$8.85	62% 13167-8025 (21192)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$12.08	$4.03	-$8.05	54% 456-392 (848)
WA WarriorHCTR	Noavg 11¢	$154.75	$3.52	-$11.08	17% 1056-5089 (6145)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 8.9¢	$5.39	$1.6	-$3.78	40% 966-1423 (2389)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$4.5	$1.5	-$3	79% 10898-2965 (13863)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Noavg 18¢	$195.84	$0.7	-$33.07	25% 1615-4803 (6418)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$507.65

Value

$494.2

PnL

+$105.95

Record

61%

356-225 (581)

clazzy1

Yes

Invested

$375.04

Value

$445.26

PnL

+$70.22

Record

64%

464-262 (726)

Istaroth

Yes

Invested

$203.9

Value

$134.3

PnL

-$44.1

Record

16%

416-2180 (2596)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Invested

$46

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$20.5

Record

20%

2358-9226 (11584)

HerrieDavisCTR

Invested

$456.75

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$60.98

Record

36%

2138-3835 (5973)

SulkingCryptoCTR

Invested

$449

Value

$11.9

PnL

-$37.49

Record

17%

260-1309 (1569)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$61.98

Value

$7.64

PnL

-$44.39

Record

24%

291-898 (1189)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$33.7

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$28.3

Record

54%

26594-22226 (48820)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Invested

$13.05

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$8.85

Record

62%

13167-8025 (21192)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Invested

$12.08

Value

$4.03

PnL

-$8.05

Record

54%

456-392 (848)

WarriorHCTR

Invested

$154.75

Value

$3.52

PnL

-$11.08

Record

17%

1056-5089 (6145)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$5.39

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$3.78

Record

40%

966-1423 (2389)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$4.5

Value

$1.5

PnL

-$3

Record

79%

10898-2965 (13863)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Invested

$195.84

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$33.07

Record

25%

1615-4803 (6418)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (13 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 85% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.