Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Hogan Gidley be the next White House Press Secretary?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 5.8¢ · $150 held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$149.7

Combined PnL

$6.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$34.44

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$8.96

Yes5 traders

Total Value$19.19

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$2.81

No — 29%Yes — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107ARB<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$89.84	$96.08	+$6.24	7% 29-398 (427)
└ No leg	Noavg 90.3¢	$63.18	$65.87	+$2.69
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.2¢	$26.66	$30.21	+$3.55
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$23.11	$22.58	-$0.53	42% 25-34 (59)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$13.2	$11.85	+$9.49	13% 48-310 (358)
HorribleWorkCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$3.55	$9.33	+$5.77	0% 0-78 (78)
DirkDiggler67CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.7¢	$15.08	$7.59	-$7.49	59% 276-192 (468)
WarriorPoohCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$2.1	$1.31	-$0.79	— 3-2 (5)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$1.22	$0.87	-$0.35	39% 1069-1654 (2723)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.04	$0.09	+$0.05	28% 118-304 (422)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107ARB<$100

Invested

$89.84

Value

$96.08

PnL

+$6.24

Record

29-398 (427)

Both legs:

No$63.1890.3¢+$2.69

Yes$26.665.2¢+$3.55

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$23.11

Value

$22.58

PnL

-$0.53

Record

42%

25-34 (59)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$13.2

Value

$11.85

PnL

+$9.49

Record

13%

48-310 (358)

HorribleWorkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.55

Value

$9.33

PnL

+$5.77

Record

0-78 (78)

DirkDiggler67CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.08

Value

$7.59

PnL

-$7.49

Record

59%

276-192 (468)

WarriorPoohCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.31

PnL

-$0.79

Record

—

3-2 (5)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.22

Value

$0.87

PnL

-$0.35

Record

39%

1069-1654 (2723)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.05

Record

28%

118-304 (422)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.1%

5.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1317.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

1417.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.