Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $592 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$591.83
$32.22
80.2¢ → 81.3¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 december | Noavg 81.3¢ | $406.5 | $406.5 | +$0 | 83% 129-27 (156) |
 GohstCTR | Yesavg 12¢ | $74.09 | $110.21 | +$23.15 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 LinaBell<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $39.84 | $50.97 | +$11.13 | 64% 1196-678 (1874) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27.9 | $24.15 | -$2.06 | 32% 4493-9632 (14125) |
decemberInvested
$406.5
Value
$406.5
PnL
+$0
Record
83%
129-27 (156)
GohstCTRInvested
$74.09
Value
$110.21
PnL
+$23.15
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
LinaBell<$100Invested
$39.84
Value
$50.97
PnL
+$11.13
Record
64%
1196-678 (1874)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$24.15
PnL
-$2.06
Record
32%
4493-9632 (14125)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.