Will HLE be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $563 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$562.52
$0.28
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 43%
Freshness
Late
435h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 43% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KO korda77 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $123.88 | $123.94 | +$0.06 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $119.88 | $119.94 | +$0.06 | 53% 5671-5102 (10773) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $99.9 | $99.95 | +$0.05 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $80.92 | $80.96 | +$0.04 | 80% 48-12 (60) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $73.75 | $73.78 | +$0.04 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $63.92 | $63.95 | +$0.03 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$123.88
Value
$123.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$119.88
Value
$119.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5671-5102 (10773)
Invested
$99.9
Value
$99.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$80.92
Value
$80.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
80%
48-12 (60)
Invested
$73.75
Value
$73.78
PnL
+$0.04
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$63.92
Value
$63.95
PnL
+$0.03
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.