Will HEROIC Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $607 held · ends Dec 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$606.99

Combined PnL

-$275.62

Smart Money Entry

99.8¢ → 99.8¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$602.94

Total Shares604

Combined PnL-$256.22

Yes4 traders

Total Value$4.05

Total Shares1,621

Combined PnL-$19.4

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 99.8¢	$1.1K	$369.08	-$178.94	30% 35523-84044 (119567)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.7¢	$274.65	$119.7	-$77.24	50% 66284-66816 (133100)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$89.82	$89.78	-$0.05	37% 16949-29332 (46281)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$24.39	$24.39	-$0	46% 6652-7812 (14464)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.51	$2.5	-$11.01	38% 842-1356 (2198)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$6.76	$1.25	-$5.51	26% 601-1695 (2296)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$2.5	$0.24	-$2.26	25% 697-2085 (2782)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$0.69	$0.07	-$0.62	22% 657-2370 (3027)

balthazar

Invested

$1,092.96

Value

$369.08

PnL

-$178.94

Record

30%

35523-84044 (119567)

cigarettes

Invested

$274.65

Value

$119.7

PnL

-$77.24

Record

50%

66284-66816 (133100)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$89.82

Value

$89.78

PnL

-$0.05

Record

37%

16949-29332 (46281)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$24.39

Value

$24.39

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

6652-7812 (14464)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.51

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$11.01

Record

38%

842-1356 (2198)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.76

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$5.51

Record

26%

601-1695 (2296)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.5

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$2.26

Record

25%

697-2085 (2782)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.62

Record

22%

657-2370 (3027)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.