Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Harry Kane finish 3rd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 6.5¢ · $724 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$724.38

Combined PnL

$22.07

Smart Money Entry

6.3¢ → 6.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$628.08

Total Shares8,114

Combined PnL+$19.57

No2 traders

Total Value$96.29

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$2.51

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 7.4¢	$305.94	$237.03	-$68.9	32% 4202-8830 (13032)
NI niceqqqqq3CTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$95.76	$215.65	+$119.89	54% 14-12 (26)
balthazarCTR	Yesavg 6.9¢	$132.22	$134.5	+$2.27	62% 19931-12391 (32322)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 89.8¢	$229.23	$88.9	+$1.74	36% 14275-25592 (39867)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 11.5¢	$1.0K	$40.91	-$33.69	53% 6100-5351 (11451)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Noavg 86.7¢	$6.71	$7.4	+$0.76	56% 302-233 (535)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$305.94

Value

$237.03

PnL

-$68.9

Record

32%

4202-8830 (13032)

niceqqqqq3CTR

Yes

Invested

$95.76

Value

$215.65

PnL

+$119.89

Record

54%

14-12 (26)

balthazarCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.22

Value

$134.5

PnL

+$2.27

Record

62%

19931-12391 (32322)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$229.23

Value

$88.9

PnL

+$1.74

Record

36%

14275-25592 (39867)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,013.37

Value

$40.91

PnL

-$33.69

Record

53%

6100-5351 (11451)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Invested

$6.71

Value

$7.4

PnL

+$0.76

Record

56%

302-233 (535)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Late

169h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.8%

6.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1174.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

1274.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.