Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 53¢ · $474 held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
1 arb excluded
$473.97
-$87.47
63.8¢ → 52.5¢
-18% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Haradwaith | Yesavg 61¢ | $231.39 | $189.2 | -$30.86 | 41% 6394-9370 (15764) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 72¢ | $181.34 | $123.77 | -$57.57 | 56% 16121-12865 (28986) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $90.75 | $89.91 | -$0.22 | 14% 513-3102 (3615) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46¢ | $41.36 | $51.25 | +$9.89 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.2¢ | $48.75 | $38.66 | -$10.11 | |
AU auros2<$100 | Yesavg 53.1¢ | $59.79 | $58.52 | -$1.84 | — 4-0 (4) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $3.48 | $6.4 | +$2.92 | 44% 6591-8244 (14835) |
ND ndb1<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $6.29 | $6.17 | -$0.12 | 65% 957-513 (1470) |
HaradwaithInvested
$231.39
Value
$189.2
PnL
-$30.86
Record
41%
6394-9370 (15764)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$181.34
Value
$123.77
PnL
-$57.57
Record
56%
16121-12865 (28986)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$90.75
Value
$89.91
PnL
-$0.22
Record
14%
513-3102 (3615)
Both legs:
Invested
$59.79
Value
$58.52
PnL
-$1.84
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$3.48
Value
$6.4
PnL
+$2.92
Record
44%
6591-8244 (14835)
Invested
$6.29
Value
$6.17
PnL
-$0.12
Record
65%
957-513 (1470)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.