Will Hakeem Jeffries be the next House Majority Leader?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $106 held · ends Jan 3, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$106.13
$0.18
99.5¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Late
149h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $74.57 | $74.59 | +$0.02 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.88 | $19.89 | +$0.01 | 52% 5134-4698 (9832) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $8.53 | $8.51 | -$0.02 | 51% 4240-4094 (8334) |
AH aHjCz<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $2.24 | $2.24 | -$0 | 26% 1167-3361 (4528) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.73 | $0.91 | +$0.18 | 39% 1005-1573 (2578) |
Invested
$74.57
Value
$74.59
PnL
+$0.02
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$19.88
Value
$19.89
PnL
+$0.01
Record
52%
5134-4698 (9832)
balthazar<$100Invested
$8.53
Value
$8.51
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
4240-4094 (8334)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.24
PnL
-$0
Record
26%
1167-3361 (4528)
Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.91
PnL
+$0.18
Record
39%
1005-1573 (2578)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.