Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Guy Pearce win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?

11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $23 held · ends Mar 14, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Mar 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$23.33

Combined PnL

-$63.63

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes11 traders

Total Value$23.33

Total Shares4,665

Combined PnL-$63.63

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$18.69	$8.22	-$22.09	39% 2901-4497 (7398)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$3.12	$5.94	-$27.59	73% 13762-5200 (18962)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$5.52	$5.52	+$0	43% 8733-11387 (20120)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$5.42	$1.25	-$4.17	31% 738-1610 (2348)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.91	$1.22	-$5.44	48% 1350-1485 (2835)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.42	-$1.86	41% 796-1131 (1927)
ME merodCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.03	$0.41	-$1.84	34% 3305-6334 (9639)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	-$0.75	49% 6542-6923 (13465)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.04	$0.12	+$0.08	18% 244-1130 (1374)
KO korda77CTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0	$0.03	+$0	38% 7139-11757 (18896)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.02	$0.03	+$0.05	39% 5746-9151 (14897)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.69

Value

$8.22

PnL

-$22.09

Record

39%

2901-4497 (7398)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.12

Value

$5.94

PnL

-$27.59

Record

73%

13762-5200 (18962)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.52

Value

$5.52

PnL

+$0

Record

43%

8733-11387 (20120)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.42

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$4.17

Record

31%

738-1610 (2348)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.91

Value

$1.22

PnL

-$5.44

Record

48%

1350-1485 (2835)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$1.86

Record

41%

796-1131 (1927)

merodCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.84

Record

34%

3305-6334 (9639)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

6542-6923 (13465)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$0.08

Record

18%

244-1130 (1374)

korda77CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

7139-11757 (18896)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$0.05

Record

39%

5746-9151 (14897)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 11 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.