Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Guillermo Moreno win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $32 held · ends Oct 24, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Oct 24, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$32.42

Combined PnL

-$200.8

Smart Money Entry

1.1¢ → 0.1¢

-86% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$32.42

Total Shares21,615

Combined PnL-$200.8

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoffeeDespiserCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$135.7	$22.5	-$113.21	50% 870-859 (1729)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$55.08	$5.29	-$49.79	73% 11083-4091 (15174)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$27.5	$2.64	-$24.86	7% 14-192 (206)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$4.89	$0.77	-$4.12	38% 2935-4691 (7626)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$2.9	$0.45	-$2.45	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$2.15	$0.29	-$1.86	64% 5396-3050 (8446)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$3.06	$0.29	-$2.77	42% 1898-2620 (4518)
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.87	$0.18	-$1.7	54% 113-96 (209)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.07	$0.01	-$0.06	54% 6080-5238 (11318)

CoffeeDespiserCTR

Yes

Invested

$135.7

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$113.21

Record

50%

870-859 (1729)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$55.08

Value

$5.29

PnL

-$49.79

Record

73%

11083-4091 (15174)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.5

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$24.86

Record

14-192 (206)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$4.12

Record

38%

2935-4691 (7626)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.45

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.15

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$1.86

Record

64%

5396-3050 (8446)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.06

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$2.77

Record

42%

1898-2620 (4518)

0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.87

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$1.7

Record

54%

113-96 (209)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.07

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

6080-5238 (11318)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.