Will Green Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (38%) · Yes at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 38%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$523.35

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 97.4¢

+84% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,297

Combined PnL+$585.48

No5 traders

Total Value$77.98

Total Shares2,999

Combined PnL-$62.12

Yes — 38%No — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 34.5¢	$300.86	$869.03	+$568.17	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
FL flatbarrel	Yesavg 93.3¢	$373.03	$389.31	+$16.91	58% 2804-2011 (4815)
viniiCTR	Noavg 5.3¢	$101.23	$70.22	-$31	73% 3098-1126 (4224)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 89.4¢	$4.47	$4.87	+$0.4	77% 12686-3871 (16557)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 13.2¢	$19.81	$3.89	-$15.92	52% 30872-28974 (59846)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 13¢	$13.25	$2.67	-$10.58	27% 2510-6880 (9390)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$2.7	$0.64	-$2.06	23% 780-2548 (3328)
LucerysCTR<$100	Noavg 13.6¢	$29.35	$0.56	-$2.56	72% 13809-5348 (19157)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$300.86

Value

$869.03

PnL

+$568.17

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

flatbarrel

Yes

Invested

$373.03

Value

$389.31

PnL

+$16.91

Record

58%

2804-2011 (4815)

viniiCTR

Invested

$101.23

Value

$70.22

PnL

-$31

Record

73%

3098-1126 (4224)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.47

Value

$4.87

PnL

+$0.4

Record

77%

12686-3871 (16557)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$19.81

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$15.92

Record

52%

30872-28974 (59846)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$13.25

Value

$2.67

PnL

-$10.58

Record

27%

2510-6880 (9390)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$2.06

Record

23%

780-2548 (3328)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$29.35

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$2.56

Record

72%

13809-5348 (19157)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

28h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.