Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Green Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $3 held · ends Nov 7

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.88

Combined PnL

-$21.25

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.88

Total Shares5,753

Combined PnL-$21.25

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$5.13	$2.56	-$2.56	39% 1303-2002 (3305)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$16.58	$0.27	-$16.3	50% 473-472 (945)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.52	$0.03	-$1.49	17% 235-1139 (1374)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.89	61% 15575-9879 (25454)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.13

Value

$2.56

PnL

-$2.56

Record

39%

1303-2002 (3305)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.58

Value

$0.27

PnL

-$16.3

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.52

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.49

Record

17%

235-1139 (1374)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.89

Record

61%

15575-9879 (25454)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.