Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.4K
$408.99
87.3¢ → 89.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 87¢ | $146.93 | $1.2K | +$205.83 | 50% 1695-1681 (3376) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $268.64 | $139.54 | +$238.46 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $61.92 | $38.7 | -$33.54 | 53% 4649-4137 (8786) |
HO Hourglass<$100 | Noavg 90.9¢ | $36 | $34 | -$2 | 77% 9151-2797 (11948) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $7.72 | $11.4 | +$0.24 | 41% 1410-2066 (3476) |
Invested
$146.93
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$205.83
Record
50%
1695-1681 (3376)
Invested
$268.64
Value
$139.54
PnL
+$238.46
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$61.92
Value
$38.7
PnL
-$33.54
Record
53%
4649-4137 (8786)
Invested
$36
Value
$34
PnL
-$2
Record
77%
9151-2797 (11948)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$7.72
Value
$11.4
PnL
+$0.24
Record
41%
1410-2066 (3476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.