Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 38¢ · $694 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
$694.31
$99.22
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
56h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $587.41 | $628.06 | +$106.19 | 49% 421-432 (853) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 76.7¢ | $35.25 | $31 | -$4.25 | 42% 5384-7432 (12816) |
SU SulkingCrypto<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $29.48 | $27.28 | -$2.2 | 16% 267-1368 (1635) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $17.16 | $7.97 | -$0.52 | 24% 692-2171 (2863) |
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$587.41
Value
$628.06
PnL
+$106.19
Record
49%
421-432 (853)
Invested
$35.25
Value
$31
PnL
-$4.25
Record
42%
5384-7432 (12816)
Invested
$29.48
Value
$27.28
PnL
-$2.2
Record
16%
267-1368 (1635)
Invested
$17.16
Value
$7.97
PnL
-$0.52
Record
24%
692-2171 (2863)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.