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7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $361 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 100%
$361.36
-$1.79
98.9¢ → 98.6¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 67%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 98.8¢ | $138.32 | $137.69 | -$0.63 | 51% 4732-4556 (9288) |
GR graynotebook19 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $104.1 | $103.27 | -$0.83 | 26% 863-2483 (3346) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $49.7 | $49.18 | -$0.52 | 25% 81-244 (325) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $19.7 | $19.76 | +$0.06 | 53% 5757-5140 (10897) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $19.7 | $19.76 | +$0.06 | 40% 1461-2159 (3620) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $16.67 | $16.72 | +$0.05 | 80% 57-14 (71) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $14.96 | $14.99 | +$0.03 | 17% 68-331 (399) |
balthazarInvested
$138.32
Value
$137.69
PnL
-$0.63
Record
51%
4732-4556 (9288)
Invested
$104.1
Value
$103.27
PnL
-$0.83
Record
26%
863-2483 (3346)
Invested
$49.7
Value
$49.18
PnL
-$0.52
Record
25%
81-244 (325)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$19.76
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5757-5140 (10897)
Invested
$19.7
Value
$19.76
PnL
+$0.06
Record
40%
1461-2159 (3620)
Invested
$16.67
Value
$16.72
PnL
+$0.05
Record
80%
57-14 (71)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$14.99
PnL
+$0.03
Record
17%
68-331 (399)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.