Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (85%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 15¢ · $510 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 20%
$509.61
-$137.74
Research grade
AvoidNo at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 85%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
586h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 39.8¢ | $535.72 | $171.08 | -$239.96 | 36% 14340-25707 (40047) |
 Tenebrus7 | Yesavg 72.7¢ | $145.4 | $170 | +$24.6 | 73% 2897-1056 (3953) |
KI KiruaTrading | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $70.6 | $145.08 | +$74.23 | 56% 248-191 (439) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Yesavg 73.4¢ | $16.81 | $19.19 | +$2.38 | 55% 302-251 (553) |
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237<$100 | Yesavg 64.9¢ | $3.25 | $4.25 | +$1.01 | 51% 327-320 (647) |
Invested
$535.72
Value
$171.08
PnL
-$239.96
Record
36%
14340-25707 (40047)
Tenebrus7Invested
$145.4
Value
$170
PnL
+$24.6
Record
73%
2897-1056 (3953)
Invested
$70.6
Value
$145.08
PnL
+$74.23
Record
56%
248-191 (439)
Invested
$16.81
Value
$19.19
PnL
+$2.38
Record
55%
302-251 (553)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$4.25
PnL
+$1.01
Record
51%
327-320 (647)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.