Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$4.6K
-$174.58
88¢ → 85.5¢
-3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV Avamax | Noavg 87.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$1.43 | 80% 381-94 (475) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR | Yesavg 13.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | -$133.12 | 54% 194-168 (362) |
 Seutervoinen | Noavg 89¢ | $988.79 | $949.91 | -$16.67 | 85% 300-55 (355) |
AL Albert 1953CTR | Yesavg 14.1¢ | $200.4 | $205.36 | -$23.36 | 50% 1063-1074 (2137) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.