Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 28m?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 74¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$132.12

Smart Money Entry

67.5¢ → 74¢

+10% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,888

Combined PnL-$60.75

Yes2 traders

Total Value$502.11

Total Shares1,895

Combined PnL-$71.37

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Nostdam	Noavg 73.3¢	$1.0K	$914.52	-$132.73	54% 1441-1238 (2679)
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 30.2¢	$1.9K	$496.76	-$70.05	61% 356-225 (581)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 33.9¢	$86.82	$164.12	+$77.3	49% 7767-8208 (15975)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 68.9¢	$257.27	$54.3	-$5.99	17% 1056-5089 (6145)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$86.74	$48.32	+$2.02	57% 17528-13093 (30621)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 67¢	$40.85	$39.04	-$1.81	54% 6336-5497 (11833)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Yesavg 33¢	$191.39	$5.35	-$1.31	25% 1615-4803 (6418)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$6.75	$3.18	+$0.46	31% 2028-4546 (6574)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 74¢	$1	$0.74	-$0.01	53% 7610-6739 (14349)

Nostdam

Invested

$1,047.25

Value

$914.52

PnL

-$132.73

Record

54%

1441-1238 (2679)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,874.56

Value

$496.76

PnL

-$70.05

Record

61%

356-225 (581)

mildwindow27

Invested

$86.82

Value

$164.12

PnL

+$77.3

Record

49%

7767-8208 (15975)

WarriorH

Invested

$257.27

Value

$54.3

PnL

-$5.99

Record

17%

1056-5089 (6145)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$86.74

Value

$48.32

PnL

+$2.02

Record

57%

17528-13093 (30621)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$40.85

Value

$39.04

PnL

-$1.81

Record

54%

6336-5497 (11833)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Yes

Invested

$191.39

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$1.31

Record

25%

1615-4803 (6418)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$6.75

Value

$3.18

PnL

+$0.46

Record

31%

2028-4546 (6574)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

Value

$0.74

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

7610-6739 (14349)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 74%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.