Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.0K
$13.4
86.8¢ → 89¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Noavg 86.5¢ | $864.88 | $920 | +$40.12 | 76% 109-34 (143) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $56.1 | $56.12 | +$0.02 | 54% 6336-5497 (11833) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $70 | $40 | -$27.5 | 54% 1441-1238 (2679) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $14.89 | $8.29 | +$0.81 | 74% 12141-4268 (16409) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 92.6¢ | $7.16 | $7.11 | -$0.05 | 31% 2028-4546 (6574) |
cat-dogInvested
$864.88
Value
$920
PnL
+$40.12
Record
76%
109-34 (143)
Invested
$56.1
Value
$56.12
PnL
+$0.02
Record
54%
6336-5497 (11833)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$70
Value
$40
PnL
-$27.5
Record
54%
1441-1238 (2679)
Invested
$14.89
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$0.81
Record
74%
12141-4268 (16409)
Invested
$7.16
Value
$7.11
PnL
-$0.05
Record
31%
2028-4546 (6574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.