Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $543 held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 67%
$543.29
$18.15
86.4¢ → 87.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-23 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
26h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Istaroth | Noavg 85.5¢ | $247.39 | $221.06 | +$0.62 | 16% 427-2305 (2732) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 87.4¢ | $94.34 | $94.5 | +$0.16 | 72% 24759-9851 (34610) |
NO northdrawer | Noavg 87.7¢ | $122.77 | $78.3 | -$0.55 | 61% 15643-9934 (25577) |
 NostdamCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.5¢ | $48.51 | $54.78 | +$6.27 | 54% 1442-1238 (2680) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 86.9¢ | $65.19 | $39.15 | -$0.54 | 51% 3482-3360 (6842) |
GO god83743894 | Noavg 85.3¢ | $285.66 | $26.25 | +$0.67 | 46% 10071-11765 (21836) |
 cat-dogCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $12.78 | $23.73 | +$10.95 | 76% 112-35 (147) |
QU quietparcel | Noavg 86.9¢ | $160.84 | $4.35 | +$0 | 50% 9478-9478 (18956) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $0.6 | $1.17 | +$0.57 | 24% 302-944 (1246) |
IstarothInvested
$247.39
Value
$221.06
PnL
+$0.62
Record
16%
427-2305 (2732)
Invested
$94.34
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$0.16
Record
72%
24759-9851 (34610)
Invested
$122.77
Value
$78.3
PnL
-$0.55
Record
61%
15643-9934 (25577)
NostdamCTR<$100Invested
$48.51
Value
$54.78
PnL
+$6.27
Record
54%
1442-1238 (2680)
Invested
$65.19
Value
$39.15
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
3482-3360 (6842)
Invested
$285.66
Value
$26.25
PnL
+$0.67
Record
46%
10071-11765 (21836)
cat-dogCTR<$100Invested
$12.78
Value
$23.73
PnL
+$10.95
Record
76%
112-35 (147)
Invested
$160.84
Value
$4.35
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
9478-9478 (18956)
Invested
$0.6
Value
$1.17
PnL
+$0.57
Record
24%
302-944 (1246)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.