Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 43m?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$18.73

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 95.2¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$994.13

Total Shares1,044

Combined PnL+$13.11

Yes2 traders

Total Value$52.42

Total Shares945

Combined PnL+$5.62

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cat-dog	Noavg 93.8¢	$1.0K	$952	+$13.57	77% 104-31 (135)
NostdamCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.7¢	$44.29	$52.26	+$5.62	54% 1438-1237 (2675)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$19.3	$19.04	-$0.26	54% 21597-18636 (40233)
MA manoamano<$100	Noavg 95¢	$10.53	$10.02	+$0.02	51% 531-507 (1038)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 96.8¢	$7.48	$7.36	-$0.13	31% 1948-4395 (6343)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$5.81	$5.72	-$0.1	55% 5915-4904 (10819)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.16	$0.16	+$0	25% 185-554 (739)

cat-dog

Invested

$1,000

Value

$952

PnL

+$13.57

Record

77%

104-31 (135)

NostdamCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.29

Value

$52.26

PnL

+$5.62

Record

54%

1438-1237 (2675)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$19.3

Value

$19.04

PnL

-$0.26

Record

54%

21597-18636 (40233)

manoamano<$100

Invested

$10.53

Value

$10.02

PnL

+$0.02

Record

51%

531-507 (1038)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$7.48

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.13

Record

31%

1948-4395 (6343)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$5.81

Value

$5.72

PnL

-$0.1

Record

55%

5915-4904 (10819)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0

Record

25%

185-554 (739)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.