Will global temperature increase by less than 1.35ºC in November 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $396 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$395.83
$0.12
99.7¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $178.34 | $176.73 | -$1.61 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $82.42 | $81.73 | -$0.69 | 28% 827-2133 (2960) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.7 | $74.81 | +$0.11 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.76 | $59.85 | +$0.09 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.49 | $2.71 | +$2.22 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
LucerysInvested
$178.34
Value
$176.73
PnL
-$1.61
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$82.42
Value
$81.73
PnL
-$0.69
Record
28%
827-2133 (2960)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$74.81
PnL
+$0.11
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$59.76
Value
$59.85
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.49
Value
$2.71
PnL
+$2.22
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.