Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in November 2026?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $396 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$395.97
$0.26
99.7¢ → 98.9¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys | Noavg 99.8¢ | $178.34 | $176.73 | -$1.61 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $74.7 | $74.85 | +$0.15 | 26% 888-2504 (3392) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $74.81 | $74.18 | -$0.64 | 5% 16-322 (338) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $59.76 | $59.88 | +$0.12 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.6¢ | $7.61 | $7.62 | +$0.02 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.49 | $2.71 | +$2.22 | 17% 12-60 (72) |
LucerysInvested
$178.34
Value
$176.73
PnL
-$1.61
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$74.7
Value
$74.85
PnL
+$0.15
Record
26%
888-2504 (3392)
Invested
$74.81
Value
$74.18
PnL
-$0.64
Record
5%
16-322 (338)
Invested
$59.76
Value
$59.88
PnL
+$0.12
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
Invested
$7.61
Value
$7.62
PnL
+$0.02
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.49
Value
$2.71
PnL
+$2.22
Record
17%
12-60 (72)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.