Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (54%). 12 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will "Ghost Soldier" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 46¢ · $134 held · ends Nov 15

Yes54¢No46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$134.25

Combined PnL

-$125.09

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 46¢

-37% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes54%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$133

Total Shares405

Combined PnL-$164.51

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.23

Total Shares2

Combined PnL+$39.42

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR	Noavg 87.9¢	$193.4	$61.6	-$131.8	— 11-4 (15)
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$67.54	$21	-$46.54	30% 253-582 (835)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$13.6	$18.4	+$4.8	40% 243-368 (611)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 28¢	$5.6	$9.2	+$3.6	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.77	$3.75	+$0.98	58% 767-547 (1314)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.77	$3.74	+$0.98	61% 773-494 (1267)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.76	$3.74	+$0.97	52% 810-753 (1563)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 34¢	$2.75	$3.72	+$0.97	51% 847-812 (1659)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100	Noavg 31.1¢	$1.67	$2.46	+$0.8	49% 828-860 (1688)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$1.71	$2.39	+$0.67	46% 1139-1332 (2471)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 32¢	$1.65	$2.37	+$0.72	57% 747-553 (1300)
HA haveagoodday<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$28.48	$1.23	+$39.42	42% 1635-2289 (3924)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Noavg 57¢	$1.29	$0.64	-$0.66	50% 763-758 (1521)

0x955c9661bf6e010beff0ba896a49f715a8c8990fCTR

Invested

$193.4

Value

$61.6

PnL

-$131.8

Record

—

11-4 (15)

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$67.54

Value

$21

PnL

-$46.54

Record

30%

253-582 (835)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$18.4

PnL

+$4.8

Record

40%

243-368 (611)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$3.6

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.98

Record

58%

767-547 (1314)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354CTR<$100

Invested

$2.77

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.98

Record

61%

773-494 (1267)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.74

PnL

+$0.97

Record

52%

810-753 (1563)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$2.75

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$0.97

Record

51%

847-812 (1659)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR<$100

Invested

$1.67

Value

$2.46

PnL

+$0.8

Record

49%

828-860 (1688)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$1.71

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.67

Record

46%

1139-1332 (2471)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.65

Value

$2.37

PnL

+$0.72

Record

57%

747-553 (1300)

haveagoodday<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.48

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$39.42

Record

42%

1635-2289 (3924)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Invested

$1.29

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

763-758 (1521)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 46%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 54%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-8 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

92% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 92% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.