Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 11 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

11 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (85%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $24 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 85%

Total Value

$23.7

Combined PnL

-$72.6

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$18.5

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$6.58

Yes11 traders

Total Value$5.09

Total Shares10,173

Combined PnL-$79.17

No — 15%Yes — 85%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$15.11	$14.99	+$7.38	48% 9974-10854 (20828)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$25.25	$3.51	-$0.81	76% 12513-3844 (16357)
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$37.74	$2.72	-$36.63	57% 804-603 (1407)
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.82	$0.7	-$10.87	17% 93-456 (549)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.3¢	$3.76	$0.66	-$3.11	18% 4425-20750 (25175)
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100	Yes	$0.36	$0.36	-$5.51	6% 14-232 (246)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$3.92	$0.24	-$3.68	58% 12041-8590 (20631)
HA haveagooddayCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$258.72	$0.2	-$3.24	51% 3760-3612 (7372)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$0.1	$0.1	+$0.1	55% 3161-2559 (5720)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$0.62	46% 10394-12106 (22500)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.28	$0.03	-$0.24	39% 664-1053 (1717)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.43	$0.03	-$0.4	42% 3191-4365 (7556)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yes	$59.94	$0.02	-$14.97	36% 2033-3653 (5686)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Invested

$15.11

Value

$14.99

PnL

+$7.38

Record

48%

9974-10854 (20828)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$0.81

Record

76%

12513-3844 (16357)

EatprayloveCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.74

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$36.63

Record

57%

804-603 (1407)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.82

Value

$0.7

PnL

-$10.87

Record

17%

93-456 (549)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.76

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$3.11

Record

18%

4425-20750 (25175)

NyetRiskCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$5.51

Record

14-232 (246)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.92

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$3.68

Record

58%

12041-8590 (20631)

haveagooddayCTR

Yes

Invested

$258.72

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$3.24

Record

51%

3760-3612 (7372)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

3161-2559 (5720)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.62

Record

46%

10394-12106 (22500)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.28

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.24

Record

39%

664-1053 (1717)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.4

Record

42%

3191-4365 (7556)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.94

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$14.97

Record

36%

2033-3653 (5686)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

11 of 13 top traders (85%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Late

71h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

85% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 82% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9423.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

9523.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.