Will Germany win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?

12 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Jun 14, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Jun 14, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$36.21

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 96.3¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,580

Combined PnL+$74.64

Yes3 traders

Total Value$80.23

Total Shares2,168

Combined PnL-$38.43

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

793h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 95.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$6.86	42% 3173-4329 (7502)
balthazar	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$30.19	53% 29396-26298 (55694)
P1 P1kaso	Noavg 94¢	$469.77	$480.5	+$10.73	63% 789-471 (1260)
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 95.2¢	$261.83	$264.83	+$3	42% 7033-9821 (16854)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 95¢	$200.03	$202.41	+$2.83	49% 1759-1844 (3603)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 97¢	$177.67	$176.38	-$1.29	59% 11938-8372 (20310)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 98.8¢	$93.9	$91.49	-$2.41	49% 8853-9361 (18214)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 5.6¢	$117.9	$77.64	-$40.26	41% 2052-2927 (4979)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$57.25	$55.64	+$25.37	72% 13988-5402 (19390)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$39.56	$38.52	-$1.04	31% 3522-7876 (11398)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 93¢	$18.05	$18.69	+$0.64	43% 3155-4197 (7352)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$18.98	$18.66	-$0.32	58% 19680-14468 (34148)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.77	$4.83	+$0.07	55% 4438-3636 (8074)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.8¢	$0.4	$1.85	+$1.45	18% 4304-20139 (24443)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$0.36	$0.74	+$0.38	53% 8266-7377 (15643)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$1,537.9

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$6.86

Record

42%

3173-4329 (7502)

balthazar

Invested

$1,483.48

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$30.19

Record

53%

29396-26298 (55694)

P1kaso

Invested

$469.77

Value

$480.5

PnL

+$10.73

Record

63%

789-471 (1260)

godblessme2026

Invested

$261.83

Value

$264.83

PnL

+$3

Record

42%

7033-9821 (16854)

PiEDawg

Invested

$200.03

Value

$202.41

PnL

+$2.83

Record

49%

1759-1844 (3603)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$177.67

Value

$176.38

PnL

-$1.29

Record

59%

11938-8372 (20310)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$93.9

Value

$91.49

PnL

-$2.41

Record

49%

8853-9361 (18214)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$117.9

Value

$77.64

PnL

-$40.26

Record

41%

2052-2927 (4979)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$57.25

Value

$55.64

PnL

+$25.37

Record

72%

13988-5402 (19390)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

$39.56

Value

$38.52

PnL

-$1.04

Record

31%

3522-7876 (11398)

merod<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$18.69

PnL

+$0.64

Record

43%

3155-4197 (7352)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$18.98

Value

$18.66

PnL

-$0.32

Record

58%

19680-14468 (34148)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.83

PnL

+$0.07

Record

55%

4438-3636 (8074)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$1.45

Record

18%

4304-20139 (24443)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.74

PnL

+$0.38

Record

53%

8266-7377 (15643)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 15 top traders (80%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Late

793h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

32 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (14 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 86% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.4%

96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.