Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 1.3%?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 88¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$18.6

Smart Money Entry

72.4¢ → 87.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$990.74

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$188.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$339.7

Total Shares2,718

Combined PnL-$207.02

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 69.8¢	$653.08	$837.17	+$184.08	— 2-1 (3)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 19.1¢	$518.66	$339.07	-$206.71	53% 1090-977 (2067)
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Noavg 86¢	$149.24	$153.58	+$4.34	66% 556-285 (841)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100	Yesavg 30.9¢	$0.93	$0.63	-$0.3	53% 320-284 (604)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$653.08

Value

$837.17

PnL

+$184.08

Record

—

2-1 (3)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$518.66

Value

$339.07

PnL

-$206.71

Record

53%

1090-977 (2067)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Invested

$149.24

Value

$153.58

PnL

+$4.34

Record

66%

556-285 (841)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.93

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

320-284 (604)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.