Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Genoa win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.0¢ · $1 held · ends May 29, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, May 29, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.86

Combined PnL

-$71.06

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.86

Total Shares1,726

Combined PnL-$71.06

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forgotmydinnerCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$4.35	$0.8	-$65.87	18% 108-506 (614)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yes	$0.04	$0.04	-$3.09	43% 8800-11453 (20253)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$0.54	$0.02	-$1.49	17% 1362-6612 (7974)
AU auros2CTR<$100	Yes	$0.01	$0.01	-$0.62	— 6-1 (7)

forgotmydinnerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.35

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$65.87

Record

18%

108-506 (614)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$3.09

Record

43%

8800-11453 (20253)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$1.49

Record

17%

1362-6612 (7974)

auros2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.62

Record

—

6-1 (7)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.