Will Gemini Carbon debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$1.9K
-$18.82
98.5¢ → 99.1¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vinii | Noavg 99.7¢ | $925.59 | $927.07 | +$1.48 | — 5-1 (6) |
 KimchiCapital | Noavg 93.8¢ | $521.44 | $335.87 | -$5.77 | — 4-0 (4) |
PA pagliacci4 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $285.71 | $283.28 | -$2.43 | 52% 35-32 (67) |
 iutwpfal | Noavg 98.4¢ | $250.77 | $254.7 | +$3.93 | — 2-3 (5) |
 balthazar | Noavg 99.1¢ | $121.12 | $122.1 | +$0.98 | 47% 4795-5410 (10205) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $4.11 | $4.28 | +$0.17 | 47% 1401-1566 (2967) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.5¢ | $54.92 | $1.62 | -$17.17 | 12% 34-241 (275) |
viniiInvested
$925.59
Value
$927.07
PnL
+$1.48
Record
—
5-1 (6)
KimchiCapitalInvested
$521.44
Value
$335.87
PnL
-$5.77
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$285.71
Value
$283.28
PnL
-$2.43
Record
52%
35-32 (67)
iutwpfalInvested
$250.77
Value
$254.7
PnL
+$3.93
Record
—
2-3 (5)
balthazarInvested
$121.12
Value
$122.1
PnL
+$0.98
Record
47%
4795-5410 (10205)
Invested
$4.11
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.17
Record
47%
1401-1566 (2967)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$54.92
Value
$1.62
PnL
-$17.17
Record
12%
34-241 (275)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.