Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1560 by June 30, 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $718 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$717.85
-$8.77
96.9¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Noavg 97.8¢ | $646.38 | $628.09 | -$18.28 | 68% 1490-693 (2183) |
KI KiruaTrading<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $51.65 | $52.25 | +$0.6 | 57% 256-197 (453) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86.3¢ | $31.2 | $30 | -$0.61 | 24% 285-894 (1179) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $68.81 | $4.72 | +$2.28 | 42% 5200-7124 (12324) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $32.4 | $2.79 | +$7.24 | 74% 2705-971 (3676) |
The-JokerInvested
$646.38
Value
$628.09
PnL
-$18.28
Record
68%
1490-693 (2183)
Invested
$51.65
Value
$52.25
PnL
+$0.6
Record
57%
256-197 (453)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$31.2
Value
$30
PnL
-$0.61
Record
24%
285-894 (1179)
Invested
$68.81
Value
$4.72
PnL
+$2.28
Record
42%
5200-7124 (12324)
vinii<$100Invested
$32.4
Value
$2.79
PnL
+$7.24
Record
74%
2705-971 (3676)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.