Will Gemini Carbon debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$3.4K
-$10.81
97.7¢ → 97.9¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 The-Joker | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.2K | -$1.28 | 68% 1490-693 (2183) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $427.83 | $231.61 | -$10.28 | 24% 285-895 (1180) |
HI hithitfar<$100 | Yesavg 94.4¢ | $86.03 | $9.82 | +$0.74 | 57% 563-428 (991) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.