Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (76%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 24¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$345.95
43¢ → 24¢
-44% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $2.4K | $2.1K | -$74.8 | 20% 312-1272 (1584) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.6K | +$435.38 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49¢ | $1.0K | $494.12 | -$510.18 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR | Noavg 42.7¢ | $632.72 | $150.62 | -$212.46 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 45.2¢ | $355.76 | $142.96 | -$132.15 | 42% 5216-7150 (12366) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $17.33 | $16 | -$1.33 | 42% 148-205 (353) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$2,445.3
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$74.8
Record
20%
312-1272 (1584)
Both legs:
Invested
$632.72
Value
$150.62
PnL
-$212.46
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
Invested
$355.76
Value
$142.96
PnL
-$132.15
Record
42%
5216-7150 (12366)
Invested
$17.33
Value
$16
PnL
-$1.33
Record
42%
148-205 (353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.