Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 23 and November 29, 2026?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $880 held · ends Nov 30

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$880.22

Combined PnL

$348.8

Smart Money Entry

46.8¢ → 95¢

+103% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$778.12

Total Shares821

Combined PnL+$393.94

Yes3 traders

Total Value$102.1

Total Shares1,926

Combined PnL-$45.15

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

103h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawer	Noavg 0.1¢	$0.28	$396.16	+$395.88	61% 15643-9934 (25577)
LP lpgb	Noavg 95.2¢	$154.17	$153.37	-$0.8	24% 302-944 (1246)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 96.2¢	$121.55	$120.66	-$0.89	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
IstarothCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$75.45	$49.47	-$25.68	16% 427-2305 (2732)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.4¢	$29.5	$45.68	-$20.39	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 91¢	$29.02	$30.21	+$0.96	42% 5384-7432 (12816)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$28.88	$28.38	-$0.5	50% 9478-9478 (18956)
GO godblessme2026<$100	Noavg 96.3¢	$76.57	$25.27	-$0.24	41% 6729-9567 (16296)
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$11.72	$11.52	-$0.19	43% 1325-1779 (3104)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$11.62	$11.39	-$0.23	47% 2044-2320 (4364)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.9¢	$6.42	$6.94	+$0.92	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 98.3¢	$1.21	$1.17	-$0.04	36% 205-358 (563)

northdrawer

Invested

$0.28

Value

$396.16

PnL

+$395.88

Record

61%

15643-9934 (25577)

lpgb

Invested

$154.17

Value

$153.37

PnL

-$0.8

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

WarriorH

Invested

$121.55

Value

$120.66

PnL

-$0.89

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

IstarothCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.45

Value

$49.47

PnL

-$25.68

Record

16%

427-2305 (2732)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.5

Value

$45.68

PnL

-$20.39

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$29.02

Value

$30.21

PnL

+$0.96

Record

42%

5384-7432 (12816)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$28.88

Value

$28.38

PnL

-$0.5

Record

50%

9478-9478 (18956)

godblessme2026<$100

Invested

$76.57

Value

$25.27

PnL

-$0.24

Record

41%

6729-9567 (16296)

0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100

Invested

$11.72

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.19

Record

43%

1325-1779 (3104)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$11.62

Value

$11.39

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

2044-2320 (4364)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.42

Value

$6.94

PnL

+$0.92

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.21

Value

$1.17

PnL

-$0.04

Record

36%

205-358 (563)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Late

103h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Diverging

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.