Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 92¢ · $728 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$727.64
$62.9
85.6¢ → 92¢
+7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 85.2¢ | $933.78 | $447.53 | +$48.7 | 53% 6540-5754 (12294) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 85.7¢ | $232.74 | $203.82 | +$14.58 | 42% 5216-7150 (12366) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $57.67 | $60.29 | +$2.62 | 42% 148-205 (353) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $19 | $16 | -$3 | 56% 15305-11848 (27153) |
Invested
$933.78
Value
$447.53
PnL
+$48.7
Record
53%
6540-5754 (12294)
Invested
$232.74
Value
$203.82
PnL
+$14.58
Record
42%
5216-7150 (12366)
Invested
$57.67
Value
$60.29
PnL
+$2.62
Record
42%
148-205 (353)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100Invested
$19
Value
$16
PnL
-$3
Record
56%
15305-11848 (27153)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.