Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 90¢ · $299 held · ends Nov 23
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$298.78
$13.52
89.7¢ → 89.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI lissartter | Noavg 89.3¢ | $216.83 | $218.32 | +$1.49 | 42% 5216-7150 (12366) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 91.2¢ | $61.07 | $60.2 | -$0.87 | 42% 148-205 (353) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.2¢ | $7.3 | $20.2 | +$12.9 | 56% 15305-11848 (27153) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.