Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 7 and December 13, 2026?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $209 held · ends Dec 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Dec 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$208.54

Combined PnL

-$28.01

Smart Money Entry

98.6¢ → 99.9¢

+1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$206.62

Total Shares207

Combined PnL+$2.11

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.92

Total Shares345

Combined PnL-$30.11

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.8¢	$123.97	$126.24	+$2.28	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 99.7¢	$29.9	$29.88	-$0.02	48% 8550-9093 (17643)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$26.47	$26.39	-$0.08	50% 9478-9478 (18956)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.14	$12.1	-$0.04	55% 4330-3516 (7846)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$12.04	$12	-$0.04	38% 947-1564 (2511)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$1.41	$1.41	-$22.12	61% 15643-9934 (25577)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yes	$0.35	$0.35	-$5.49	60% 11480-7596 (19076)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yes	$0.14	$0.14	-$2.21	50% 473-472 (945)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$0.3	24% 302-944 (1246)

balthazar

Invested

$123.97

Value

$126.24

PnL

+$2.28

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$29.9

Value

$29.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

8550-9093 (17643)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$26.47

Value

$26.39

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

9478-9478 (18956)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$12.14

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$0.04

Record

55%

4330-3516 (7846)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.04

Value

$12

PnL

-$0.04

Record

38%

947-1564 (2511)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$1.41

PnL

-$22.12

Record

61%

15643-9934 (25577)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$5.49

Record

60%

11480-7596 (19076)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.14

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.21

Record

50%

473-472 (945)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.3

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.