Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 28, 2026 and January 3, 2027?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Jan 4, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Jan 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.43

Combined PnL

-$77.17

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.43

Total Shares854

Combined PnL-$77.17

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.18	$0.18	-$33.35	61% 14025-8897 (22922)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$12.17	$0.07	-$12.11	25% 1602-4764 (6366)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.82	$0.05	-$9.76	40% 932-1399 (2331)
AK akrollCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.97	$0.05	-$8.92	30% 370-853 (1223)
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.98	$0.03	-$5.95	27% 215-571 (786)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.96	$0.03	-$5.92	38% 188-303 (491)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.16	$0.01	-$1.16	54% 430-363 (793)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$33.35

Record

61%

14025-8897 (22922)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.17

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$12.11

Record

25%

1602-4764 (6366)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.82

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.76

Record

40%

932-1399 (2331)

akrollCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.97

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.92

Record

30%

370-853 (1223)

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.98

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.95

Record

27%

215-571 (786)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.96

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.92

Record

38%

188-303 (491)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.16

Record

54%

430-363 (793)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

15h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.