Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 21 and December 27, 2026?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Dec 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Dec 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.95

Combined PnL

-$99.16

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.95

Total Shares1,108

Combined PnL-$99.16

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$14.49	$0.48	-$14.01	37% 758-1271 (2029)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$36.81	$0.21	-$36.6	60% 7177-4741 (11918)
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$18.57	$0.1	-$18.47	53% 8911-7962 (16873)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$16.72	$0.09	-$16.63	31% 1407-3191 (4598)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$6.4	$0.04	-$6.37	25% 181-537 (718)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.96	$0.03	-$5.92	38% 187-299 (486)
AN anothercoinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$1.16	$0.01	-$1.16	51% 218-210 (428)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.49

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$14.01

Record

37%

758-1271 (2029)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.81

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$36.6

Record

60%

7177-4741 (11918)

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.57

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$18.47

Record

53%

8911-7962 (16873)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.72

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$16.63

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

lpgbCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.4

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$6.37

Record

25%

181-537 (718)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.96

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.92

Record

38%

187-299 (486)

anothercoinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.16

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.16

Record

51%

218-210 (428)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9061.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

9161.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.