Will Gemini Carbon be released between December 14 and December 20, 2026?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 100¢ · $693 held · ends Dec 21

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Dec 21, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 25%

Total Value

$692.88

Combined PnL

$41.14

Smart Money Entry

86.6¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$691.87

Total Shares692

Combined PnL+$92.4

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.31

Total Shares627

Combined PnL-$51.26

No — 25%Yes — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

267h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 86.6¢	$598.11	$690.49	+$92.39	—
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100	Noavg 99¢	$1.37	$1.38	+$0.01	—
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$15.91	$0.09	-$15.82	—
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.42	$0.05	-$9.37	—
ZE zerone777CTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$9.42	$0.05	-$9.37	—
LI LikaseentCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$8.76	$0.05	-$8.71	—
QU quietparcelCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$2.6	$0.04	-$2.56	—
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.1¢	$5.46	$0.03	-$5.43	—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$598.11

Value

$690.49

PnL

+$92.39

Record

—

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100

Invested

$1.37

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.01

Record

—

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.91

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$15.82

Record

—

Vale54holiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.42

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.37

Record

—

zerone777CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.42

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$9.37

Record

—

LikaseentCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.76

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$8.71

Record

—

quietparcelCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.6

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$2.56

Record

—

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.46

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$5.43

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

267h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.