Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $207 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
$206.61
$38.81
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 smellyEllie | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $92.03 | $142.48 | +$50.45 | 50% 933-945 (1878) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 59.1¢ | $75.77 | $64.13 | -$11.64 | 36% 14490-25940 (40430) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.