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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $190 held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$190.3
-$5.01
99.7¢ → 98.2¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 66%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $71.5 | $70.35 | -$1.15 | 29% 882-2138 (3020) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $51.69 | $50.83 | -$0.86 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $43.66 | $43.08 | -$0.58 | 37% 3204-5379 (8583) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $19.94 | $19.61 | -$0.33 | 51% 4654-4528 (9182) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $8.51 | $6.42 | -$2.09 | 84% 66-13 (79) |
Invested
$71.5
Value
$70.35
PnL
-$1.15
Record
29%
882-2138 (3020)
Invested
$51.69
Value
$50.83
PnL
-$0.86
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$43.66
Value
$43.08
PnL
-$0.58
Record
37%
3204-5379 (8583)
balthazar<$100Invested
$19.94
Value
$19.61
PnL
-$0.33
Record
51%
4654-4528 (9182)
Invested
$8.51
Value
$6.42
PnL
-$2.09
Record
84%
66-13 (79)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.