Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Gabriel Bonfim be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.22

Combined PnL

-$122.18

Smart Money Entry

5¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.22

Total Shares2,444

Combined PnL-$122.18

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$65.76	$0.63	-$65.13	79% 10607-2754 (13361)
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$0.18	$0.44	-$45.63	49% 7442-7773 (15215)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.53	$0.05	-$5.47	55% 5874-4767 (10641)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 0¢	$0.02	$0.05	+$0.05	32% 6340-13239 (19579)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$14.32	$0.04	-$4.78	55% 6024-5008 (11032)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.69	$0.01	-$0.68	44% 4029-5217 (9246)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.53	$0.01	-$0.52	37% 683-1149 (1832)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.76

Value

$0.63

PnL

-$65.13

Record

79%

10607-2754 (13361)

mildwindow27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.44

PnL

-$45.63

Record

49%

7442-7773 (15215)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.53

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.47

Record

55%

5874-4767 (10641)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0.05

Record

32%

6340-13239 (19579)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.32

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.78

Record

55%

6024-5008 (11032)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.68

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.52

Record

37%

683-1149 (1832)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.