Will Gabriel Attal win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 99¢ · $141 held · ends Apr 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
$141.03
-$0.95
99.8¢ → 98.8¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 60%
Freshness
Mature
47h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $44.92 | $44.62 | -$0.29 | 43% 10590-14068 (24658) |
MI mildwindow27 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $144.79 | $39.66 | -$0.28 | 43% 8733-11387 (20120) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | No | $29.75 | $29.75 | +$0 | 46% 9374-11127 (20501) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $14.87 | -$0.11 | 47% 10328-11798 (22126) |
PL plainfolder<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $11.98 | $11.9 | -$0.08 | 31% 4444-9728 (14172) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $0.41 | $0.2 | -$0.21 | 19% 2852-12168 (15020) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.02 | $0.04 | +$0.02 | 58% 21138-15369 (36507) |
Invested
$44.92
Value
$44.62
PnL
-$0.29
Record
43%
10590-14068 (24658)
Invested
$144.79
Value
$39.66
PnL
-$0.28
Record
43%
8733-11387 (20120)
Invested
$29.75
Value
$29.75
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
9374-11127 (20501)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$14.87
PnL
-$0.11
Record
47%
10328-11798 (22126)
Invested
$11.98
Value
$11.9
PnL
-$0.08
Record
31%
4444-9728 (14172)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.41
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$0.21
Record
19%
2852-12168 (15020)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.04
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
21138-15369 (36507)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.