Will G2 Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 17

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$232.48

Combined PnL

$3.05

Smart Money Entry

97.3¢ → 98.6¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$232.48

Total Shares236

Combined PnL+$3.05

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$70.91	$71.93	+$1.02	51% 4602-4505 (9107)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$58.26	$59.16	+$0.9	13% 55-372 (427)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$31.93	$31.97	+$0.04	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 97¢	$29.1	$29.58	+$0.48	14% 55-329 (384)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$13.43	$13.64	+$0.21	41% 347-498 (845)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$9.4	$9.54	+$0.15	44% 1081-1380 (2461)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$7.17	$7.28	+$0.11	— 2-14 (16)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97¢	$5.01	$5.09	+$0.08	41% 662-968 (1630)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$4.23	$4.3	+$0.07	30% 2654-6198 (8852)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$70.91

Value

$71.93

PnL

+$1.02

Record

51%

4602-4505 (9107)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$58.26

Value

$59.16

PnL

+$0.9

Record

13%

55-372 (427)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$31.93

Value

$31.97

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$29.1

Value

$29.58

PnL

+$0.48

Record

14%

55-329 (384)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$13.43

Value

$13.64

PnL

+$0.21

Record

41%

347-498 (845)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$9.4

Value

$9.54

PnL

+$0.15

Record

44%

1081-1380 (2461)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$7.17

Value

$7.28

PnL

+$0.11

Record

—

2-14 (16)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$5.01

Value

$5.09

PnL

+$0.08

Record

41%

662-968 (1630)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$4.23

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.07

Record

30%

2654-6198 (8852)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 56%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.