Will G2 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $389 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$388.61
$0.19
99.9¢ → 100¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 53%
Freshness
Late
204h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.9¢ | $119.88 | $119.94 | +$0.06 | 53% 5671-5100 (10771) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $84.92 | $84.96 | +$0.04 | 84% 43-8 (51) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $75.92 | $75.96 | +$0.04 | 30% 2714-6211 (8925) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $63.92 | $63.95 | +$0.03 | 40% 1456-2158 (3614) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $43.78 | $43.8 | +$0.02 | 17% 66-330 (396) |
Invested
$119.88
Value
$119.94
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5671-5100 (10771)
Invested
$84.92
Value
$84.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
84%
43-8 (51)
Invested
$75.92
Value
$75.96
PnL
+$0.04
Record
30%
2714-6211 (8925)
Invested
$63.92
Value
$63.95
PnL
+$0.03
Record
40%
1456-2158 (3614)
Invested
$43.78
Value
$43.8
PnL
+$0.02
Record
17%
66-330 (396)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.