Will FUT Win the BLAST Rivals Hong Kong 2026?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 17
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$1.1K
$26.84
95.6¢ → 96.5¢
+1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JO JohnnyWins | Noavg 95¢ | $849.99 | $876.84 | +$26.84 | 0% 0-68 (68) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $71.43 | $71.5 | +$0.07 | 51% 4602-4505 (9107) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $58.86 | $58.8 | -$0.06 | 40% 1444-2158 (3602) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $31.78 | $31.77 | -$0.01 | 53% 1602-1414 (3016) |
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $29.4 | $29.4 | +$0 | 27% 923-2513 (3436) |
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $10.08 | $10.08 | +$0 | 41% 662-968 (1630) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $7.23 | $7.23 | +$0.01 | — 2-14 (16) |
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $5.07 | $5.06 | -$0.02 | 41% 347-498 (845) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $4.53 | $4.54 | +$0 | 44% 1081-1380 (2461) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $4.27 | $4.27 | +$0 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $1.01 | $1.01 | +$0 | 46% 320-373 (693) |
Invested
$849.99
Value
$876.84
PnL
+$26.84
Record
0%
0-68 (68)
balthazar<$100Invested
$71.43
Value
$71.5
PnL
+$0.07
Record
51%
4602-4505 (9107)
Invested
$58.86
Value
$58.8
PnL
-$0.06
Record
40%
1444-2158 (3602)
Invested
$31.78
Value
$31.77
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
1602-1414 (3016)
Invested
$29.4
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$0
Record
27%
923-2513 (3436)
Invested
$10.08
Value
$10.08
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
662-968 (1630)
Invested
$7.23
Value
$7.23
PnL
+$0.01
Record
—
2-14 (16)
Invested
$5.07
Value
$5.06
PnL
-$0.02
Record
41%
347-498 (845)
Invested
$4.53
Value
$4.54
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1081-1380 (2461)
Invested
$4.27
Value
$4.27
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
320-373 (693)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
JohnnyWins
No — $876.84
balthazar
No — $71.5
haveagoodday
No — $58.8
Bigggggggg
No — $31.77
northdrawer
No — $29.4
0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225
No — $10.08
VictorLudorum
No — $7.23
0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343
No — $5.06
alex20011
No — $4.54
qwen300.fund
No — $4.27