Will FURIA Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?
12 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 100%
$1.3K
-$13.56
93.9¢ → 92.5¢
-2% since entry · 12 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
12 of 12 top traders (100%)7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
12 traders
Top 2 hold 44%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar | Noavg 94¢ | $347.79 | $344.09 | -$3.7 | 50% 4487-4433 (8920) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 94¢ | $252.11 | $249.43 | -$2.68 | 52% 5301-4808 (10109) |
LI Likaseent | Noavg 94¢ | $139 | $137.52 | -$1.48 | 26% 360-1007 (1367) |
KA kaxel78 | Noavg 94¢ | $139 | $137.52 | -$1.48 | 28% 522-1370 (1892) |
ZE zerone777 | Noavg 94¢ | $139 | $137.52 | -$1.48 | 30% 511-1182 (1693) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $93.43 | $92.43 | -$0.99 | 28% 367-935 (1302) |
GO god83743894<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $84.6 | $83.7 | -$0.9 | 4% 15-322 (337) |
AL alex20011<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $46.5 | $46.5 | +$0 | 44% 1068-1376 (2444) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $47 | $46.5 | -$0.5 | 27% 499-1317 (1816) |
VI VictorLudorum<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $28.2 | $27.9 | -$0.3 | — 0-13 (13) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $27.9 | $27.9 | +$0 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $5.45 | $5.39 | -$0.05 | 35% 2886-5323 (8209) |
balthazarInvested
$347.79
Value
$344.09
PnL
-$3.7
Record
50%
4487-4433 (8920)
Invested
$252.11
Value
$249.43
PnL
-$2.68
Record
52%
5301-4808 (10109)
Invested
$139
Value
$137.52
PnL
-$1.48
Record
26%
360-1007 (1367)
Invested
$139
Value
$137.52
PnL
-$1.48
Record
28%
522-1370 (1892)
Invested
$139
Value
$137.52
PnL
-$1.48
Record
30%
511-1182 (1693)
Invested
$93.43
Value
$92.43
PnL
-$0.99
Record
28%
367-935 (1302)
Invested
$84.6
Value
$83.7
PnL
-$0.9
Record
4%
15-322 (337)
Invested
$46.5
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
1068-1376 (2444)
Invested
$47
Value
$46.5
PnL
-$0.5
Record
27%
499-1317 (1816)
Invested
$28.2
Value
$27.9
PnL
-$0.3
Record
—
0-13 (13)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$27.9
PnL
+$0
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$5.45
Value
$5.39
PnL
-$0.05
Record
35%
2886-5323 (8209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.