Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 99¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$4.8K
-$227.45
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 99¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | -$30.33 | 45% 2761-3311 (6072) |
QM QMG-CORECTR | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $136.36 | $19.5 | -$116.86 | 77% 1392-412 (1804) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.1¢ | $68.03 | $14.36 | -$53.67 | 46% 268-310 (578) |
0X 0xd361529b833f79206cea905500ddb56574144ccdCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $31.73 | $5.16 | -$26.59 | — 1-0 (1) |
Invested
$4,800.86
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$30.33
Record
45%
2761-3311 (6072)
Invested
$136.36
Value
$19.5
PnL
-$116.86
Record
77%
1392-412 (1804)
Invested
$68.03
Value
$14.36
PnL
-$53.67
Record
46%
268-310 (578)
Invested
$31.73
Value
$5.16
PnL
-$26.59
Record
—
1-0 (1)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.