Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (84%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by November 30, 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 16¢ · $7K held · ends Dec 1
⚠️
Avoid
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$6.9K
-$518.37
77.3¢ → 16¢
-79% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 16%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 84%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
86% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 siickCTR | Noavg 89¢ | $4.5K | $4.0K | -$500 | 57% 762-575 (1337) |
 GenaTheBondKilIer | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $801.18 | $1.6K | +$755.92 | 50% 513-503 (1016) |
LI lissartterCTR | Noavg 59.6¢ | $1.5K | $409.66 | -$695.6 | 42% 5192-7113 (12305) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Yesavg 74.4¢ | $731.78 | $389.49 | -$21.16 | 53% 6308-5527 (11835) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 86.1¢ | $384.32 | $255.31 | -$46.48 | 28% 280-738 (1018) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86.1¢ | $219.73 | $201.69 | -$64.62 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 13.9¢ | $35.47 | $53.62 | +$18.14 | |
 zxdfbdfgngcxvCTR | Noavg 30.3¢ | $258.4 | $188.91 | -$3.32 | 82% 1730-386 (2116) |
 PorxCTR | Noavg 90¢ | $157 | $158 | +$1 | 66% 1459-756 (2215) |
 GluckykluckyCTR | Noavg 87.2¢ | $150.54 | $18.63 | -$55.22 | 82% 448-100 (548) |
siickCTRInvested
$4,450
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$500
Record
57%
762-575 (1337)
GenaTheBondKilIerInvested
$801.18
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$755.92
Record
50%
513-503 (1016)
Invested
$1,548.51
Value
$409.66
PnL
-$695.6
Record
42%
5192-7113 (12305)
Invested
$731.78
Value
$389.49
PnL
-$21.16
Record
53%
6308-5527 (11835)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$384.32
Value
$255.31
PnL
-$46.48
Record
28%
280-738 (1018)
Both legs:
zxdfbdfgngcxvCTRInvested
$258.4
Value
$188.91
PnL
-$3.32
Record
82%
1730-386 (2116)
PorxCTRInvested
$157
Value
$158
PnL
+$1
Record
66%
1459-756 (2215)
GluckykluckyCTRInvested
$150.54
Value
$18.63
PnL
-$55.22
Record
82%
448-100 (548)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
16.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.